PublicInvest, the research arm of PUBLIC Investment Bank, predicts that Malaysia's exports of goods and services will grow by 5.4% this year, alongside a projected increase of 6.8% in imports.

However, the research firm cautioned that these forecasts depend on stable global economic conditions, and there could be downward revisions if external economic factors worsen.

PublicInvest stressed the ASEAN region's vulnerability to changes in major economies such as the US, China, and the EU, underscoring the significant risks to regional trade dynamics.

However, PublicInvest remains cautiously optimistic about the outlook for 2024. They anticipate improvements in global trade and a resurgence in electronics exports driven by an upswing in the tech cycle, The Malaysian Reserve reports.

Recent data from May highlighted Malaysia's strong export sector performance, showing a significant 7.3% year-on-year growth, which exceeded market expectations after a robust 9% increase in April.

In addition, domestic exports, constituting 82.7% of total exports, saw a notable surge of 13.2% to RM106 billion. In contrast, re-exports experienced a decline of 14.1% year-on-year, amounting to RM25.9 billion.

Furthermore, imports registered a substantial year-on-year growth of 13.8%, slightly below April's 15.5% increase, resulting in Malaysia's trade surplus expanding to RM10.14 billion from RM7.74 billion in April.

PublicInvest additionally pointed out that global semiconductor sales rose by 1.1% month-on-month in April, marking the first positive monthly growth this year and suggesting increasing market momentum as mid-year approaches. 

Indeed, the semiconductor sector has consistently achieved double-digit year-on-year gains throughout this year.

Furthermore, the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) now predicts strong annual growth, projecting sales to the US to increase by 25.1% and to the Asia Pacific region by 17.5%.

The WSTS has increased its global semiconductor market growth forecast to 16%, up from the previous estimate of 13.1%.

Looking forward to 2025, an additional growth of 12.5% is anticipated, which would expand the market size to approximately $687 billion (RM3.24 trillion).